Emporia State University’s Peterson Planetarium is all about asteroids in March, with a focus on one asteroid in particular.
A large asteroid is hurtling through space with the planet Earth in its crosshairs for a potential impact in 2032. No, it’s not the plot of this summer’s big blockbuster; it was the readout on mainstream news and social media. The asteroid, discovered on Dec. 27, 2024, by ATLAS, an asteroid early warning system funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, has been named 2024 YR4.
But don’t panic just yet — the chance that the asteroid will hit Earth hovers around .3%. Optimists can handily say there is a roughly 99% chance the asteroid will harmlessly pass Earth, continuing its journey through the solar system.
Using the ATLAS system and other means of monitoring the asteroid, more precise information shows the asteroid is classified as having almost zero chance of hitting Earth, down from a not-insignificant 2% chance just days earlier.
The asteroid is estimated to be 40 to 90 meters (100 to 300 feet) in diameter. The asteroid that struck the earth, wiping out the dinosaurs, was much larger. This is no planet killer. But if things do line up and Earth does indeed cross paths with 2024 YR4, what happens next?
“If — and I stress if — this asteroid collided with Earth, it would only cause localized devastation like the size of a large city, not wiping out entire cities or continents,” said Mark Brown, director of Emporia State University’s Peterson Planetarium. “More observations are needed, and that’s what astronomers will be doing over the next several days and weeks.”
“You may see ‘fear mongering’ in the news media or on social media channels, but there is no reason for alarm,” Brown added. “There is the potential the impact percentage could increase before decreasing to zero.”
And there’s recent precedence for this assessment. Asteroid 2004 MN4 rose to a Level 4 out of a maximum of 10 on the Torino scale, a measure of possible impact, before additional observation showed there was zero chance of impact either in 2029 or 2036.
The process of tracking and studying this recent asteroid and others, as well as having the tools and funding required to do so, is vital to both protecting Earth and expanding science’s understanding of what lies beyond our small corner of the galaxy.
For now, there’s no need to panic, but you can learn more about asteroids in “Incoming!”, the March show at the Peterson Planetarium. In this full-dome presentation, join Star Trek’s George Takei in exploring the past, present and future of the solar system and how asteroids and comets collided with Earth throughout history, changing the course of life and shaping the world we know today.
The show will also feature a tour of the night sky over Emporia and learn the latest about the still-uncertain future of 2024 YR4.
The Peterson Planetarium presentation is free and open to the public; however, each attendee must register online individually at emporia.edu/planetarium for their free pass. Multiple showtimes are available to accommodate as many guests as possible.
- Saturday, March 8 at 10 a.m.
- Wednesday, March 12 at 6 p.m.
- Thursday, March 27 at 4 p.m.